Why Basic Stats Aren't Enough
Points per game, rebounds, and assists have been the language of basketball for decades. But they have serious blind spots. A player averaging 25 points per game on poor shooting efficiency can actually hurt their team. A player averaging 8 points might be one of the best defenders in the league. Advanced statistics exist to fill these gaps.
Essential Advanced Stats Explained
True Shooting Percentage (TS%)
Regular field goal percentage ignores the value of three-pointers and free throws. True Shooting Percentage accounts for all three, giving you a single number that reflects how efficiently a player scores. A TS% above 58% is generally considered elite in the modern NBA.
Player Efficiency Rating (PER)
Developed by basketball analyst John Hollinger, PER attempts to distill a player's entire statistical contribution into one number. The league average is always set at 15.0. While PER has flaws (it undervalues defense), it's a useful quick reference for offensive and all-around value.
Box Plus/Minus (BPM)
BPM estimates a player's contribution to the team per 100 possessions compared to a league-average player. A BPM of +5.0 means the team is roughly 5 points per 100 possessions better with that player on the floor. This stat separates good players from great ones more reliably than PER.
Win Shares (WS)
Win Shares attempt to attribute team wins to individual players. It's split into offensive and defensive components, giving you a sense of where a player's value comes from. It's a cumulative stat, so players with more minutes naturally accumulate more Win Shares.
Team-Level Stats You Should Know
- Offensive Rating (ORtg): Points scored per 100 possessions. Higher is better.
- Defensive Rating (DRtg): Points allowed per 100 possessions. Lower is better.
- Net Rating: ORtg minus DRtg. The best teams in the NBA typically have a Net Rating between +5 and +10.
- Pace: Estimated number of possessions per 48 minutes. High-pace teams play faster and generate more raw stats, which can inflate individual numbers.
- Assist-to-Turnover Ratio: A key measure of ball security and team ball movement quality.
On/Off Splits: The Hidden Truth
One of the most underused tools for evaluating players is on/off splits — how the team performs when a specific player is on the court versus when they're on the bench. A player might have modest individual stats but anchor the team's defense in ways that never show up in a box score. On/off data reveals this impact.
How to Use These Stats Together
No single stat tells the whole story. The best approach is to cross-reference multiple metrics:
- Start with TS% to gauge offensive efficiency.
- Check BPM for overall impact relative to league average.
- Look at on/off data to see if the team improves or declines with that player.
- Consider defensive metrics like Defensive Rating and opponent field goal percentage at the rim.
Advanced stats are tools, not verdicts. Use them to ask better questions about what you're watching — and the game will reveal far more depth than the final score ever could.